Win Probabilities After Game 10

Analytic Minds

Game 10 ended in another draw, and with only two games left we have now reached the point where we can calculate each player’s win chances instead of simulating them. Magnus Carlsen’s chances of winning the match is now 90.2% using the ratings only model and 88.2% using the adjusted model. The match win distributions are as follows:

For Anand to win the match outright, he has to win both of the last games, which is very unlikely. If Carlsen wins the next game he remains the champion, and he still has a good chance with a draw.

Rating modelAdjusted model
Carlsen win82.6%78.9%
Anand win2.3%2.5%
Tie-break15.1%18.6%

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Published by chessmusings

Chris Torres is a nationally renowned scholastic chess coach working in both Bakersfield and the San Francisco Bay Area. His classes have attracted players of strengths ranging from rank beginners to world champions. A chess professional since 1998, Chris is widely recognized as one of the main driving forces behind the explosion in popularity and sudden rise in quality of scholastic chess in California. Currently, Chris Torres has the ranking of candidate master and serves as the President of the Torres Chess and Music Academy. Mr. Torres’ hobbies include playing classical guitar and getting his students to appear on the national top 100 chess rating lists.

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