Win Probabilities After Game 7

Analytic Minds

A very long game today eventually ended in a draw. That doesn’t change the winning chances a lot, Magnus Carlsen now has an 89.4% chance of winning using the ratings only model, and an 82.8% chance using the adjusted model. The new expected match win distributions are as follows:

What this reveals though, is that Viswanathan Anand is now at the point where his win chance stems as much from forcing a tie-break as from winning outright. Both models give the players an even chance of winning a tie-break, which is one reason he has such a good chance from that. Both models find it most likely that Carlsen will win the match in Game 11.

Rating modelAdjusted model
Carlsen win84.0%74.5%
Anand win5.1%8.9%
Tie-break10.9%16.6%

Norsk forklaring av utregningene.

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Published by chessmusings

Chris Torres is a nationally renowned scholastic chess coach working in both Bakersfield and the San Francisco Bay Area. His classes have attracted players of strengths ranging from rank beginners to world champions. A chess professional since 1998, Chris is widely recognized as one of the main driving forces behind the explosion in popularity and sudden rise in quality of scholastic chess in California. Currently, Chris Torres has the ranking of candidate master and serves as the President of the Torres Chess and Music Academy. Mr. Torres’ hobbies include playing classical guitar and getting his students to appear on the national top 100 chess rating lists.

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