Win Probabilities After Game 6

Analytic Minds

We are now half way, and Magnus Carlsen managed to get into the lead after a win in Game 6 that was not without drama. This increased his probability of winning the match to 89.7% using the ratings only model, and to 83.6% using the adjusted model. This is similar to what it was after Carlsen’s win in Game 2, and the current match win distributions are as follows:

As we can see, Magnus Carlsen now has a very good grip on the game, and a lot of Vishy Anand’s chances lie in forcing a tie-break. It is now most likely that Magnus Carlsen will win the match in Game 11. Now they are half-way and Carlsen has another game with white coming up. If he can manage to win that too, he should be in very good shape.

Rating modelAdjusted model
Carlsen win84.9%76.2%

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Published by chessmusings

Chris Torres is a nationally renowned scholastic chess coach working in both Bakersfield and the San Francisco Bay Area. His classes have attracted players of strengths ranging from rank beginners to world champions. A chess professional since 1998, Chris is widely recognized as one of the main driving forces behind the explosion in popularity and sudden rise in quality of scholastic chess in California. Currently, Chris Torres has the ranking of candidate master and serves as the President of the Torres Chess and Music Academy. Mr. Torres’ hobbies include playing classical guitar and getting his students to appear on the national top 100 chess rating lists.

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