Win Probabilities After Game 3

Analytic Minds

Viswanathan Anand strikes back immediately to win Game 3, which puts him back in the match. Depending on which model we use, his chances of winning increased to 20.3% using ratings only, and 31.3% using the adjusted model. So he is still very much the underdog, but has stopped the bleeding infected by Magnus Carlsen in Game 2. The probable outcomes are as follows:

Magnus Carlsen is still the favorite, but it seems increasingly likely that he will have to fight it out to game 11 or 12.

Rating modelAdjusted model
Carlsen win73.0%59.2%
Anand win13.6%21.8%
Tie-break13.4%19.0%

This is similar to the probabilities after Game 1, but with a shift of 4-5 percentage points from Magnus Carlsen toward a tie break and Anand. This makes sense since the match is tied again, and since Carlsen is the favorite his probability of…

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Published by chessmusings

Chris Torres is a nationally renowned scholastic chess coach working in both Bakersfield and the San Francisco Bay Area. His classes have attracted players of strengths ranging from rank beginners to world champions. A chess professional since 1998, Chris is widely recognized as one of the main driving forces behind the explosion in popularity and sudden rise in quality of scholastic chess in California. Currently, Chris Torres has the ranking of candidate master and serves as the President of the Torres Chess and Music Academy. Mr. Torres’ hobbies include playing classical guitar and getting his students to appear on the national top 100 chess rating lists.

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