Viswanathan Anand strikes back immediately to win Game 3, which puts him back in the match. Depending on which model we use, his chances of winning increased to 20.3% using ratings only, and 31.3% using the adjusted model. So he is still very much the underdog, but has stopped the bleeding infected by Magnus Carlsen in Game 2. The probable outcomes are as follows:
Magnus Carlsen is still the favorite, but it seems increasingly likely that he will have to fight it out to game 11 or 12.
|Rating model||Adjusted model|
This is similar to the probabilities after Game 1, but with a shift of 4-5 percentage points from Magnus Carlsen toward a tie break and Anand. This makes sense since the match is tied again, and since Carlsen is the favorite his probability of…
View original post 77 more words